Optimism is great; but is not the basis for a sound project plan.

I hold my hands up; I occupy both ends of the optimism vs. pessimism spectrum. I am an optipess.

Embroiled as I have become in the latest fire-fight that calls itself a project I can see the fundamental failure of our forward planning model. If I was looking for a metaphor to describe the forward planning model it would be like a man buying a new pair of jeans. You can see the sizes and you know you used to be a 34" waist and so you are sure they will fit. To test the hypothesis you shoe-horn yourself in and stay standing still fully exhaled; a perfect fit! The moment of truth comes two hours in to the first period of wear when the discomfort becomes all too apparent.

So it is proving with the current project. We made all manner of assumptions in the early planning that supported what we wanted to deliver. It also supported what the business wanted us to deliver. For a short period of time it all looked very rosy. Until the assumptions started to unravel. Firstly preceding tasks overrun, then holiday knocked a hole in capacity, then people on the critical path got derailed and so it went on.

It may be that you are starting to think 'well that is basic project management'; I would agree, but with the following observations. The strength of a project is based largely on the quality of the estimates and the ability of the PM. In this instance we didn't have a dedicated PM until recently, but the more salient learning point for me is that there was never the voice of negativity. The assumptions and the estimates were too optimistic and there was no dissenting voice. This was good news for everybody, until the wheels come off and now we are faced with far more uncomfortable conversations.

So from now on I intend to plan with pessimism and deliver with optimism. Let's see if that works.